One Budget cannot undo years of damage, NTIA says

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The Night Time Industries Association says today’s Budget may stop some further damage to nightlife, but it will not repair what has already been done. Chief executive Michael Kill said the association was never under any illusion that one fiscal statement could fix the sector, and that “one Budget cannot undo years of damage.”

Chancellor John Healey did move on several things the industry had asked about. In England, pubs, social clubs and live music venues get an extra 20% business rates reduction, taking existing relief from 15% to 35% from 1 April 2027. Venues with a rateable value of £1 million or more do not get that increase. They keep the 15% relief already announced for 2026-27, and a real terms freeze in the two years after that. Full details are in the Budget document.

The Small Business Rate Relief threshold for qualifying retail, hospitality and leisure properties rises from £12,000 to £18,000 from April 2027, with the taper moving from £15,000 to £21,000. The Treasury says that takes about 70,000 more businesses out of rates altogether, including an extra 3,500 pubs, and that half of all retail, hospitality and leisure properties will pay nothing. Other properties in those sectors get a two-year real terms freeze, so bills should not rise by more than inflation. Business rates are devolved, so Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland receive Barnett funding rather than these England-only cuts.

Kill said the government had listened on gambling taxation and on support for small and medium-sized businesses, “recognising the importance of protecting our high streets and limiting further financial harm.” The rates package is partly funded by a higher Machine Games Duty on higher-risk gaming machines, and by making online marketplaces collect VAT that is already owed. Adult gaming centres and vape shops also lose certain rates reliefs. He also pointed to measures on energy costs, youth employment, apprenticeships and access to finance as signs that some of the pressure has been recognised.

He was clear that none of this goes far enough. “Their impact across the wider night-time economy is likely to be limited,” he said. About 70% of the sector is small and medium-sized businesses, and he said the small print will decide who actually benefits, how much relief is worth, and whether operating costs really fall. The bigger miss, in his view, is tax. Meaningful cuts to VAT and employer National Insurance “could have provided immediate relief, supported employment, stimulated demand and created the financial headroom businesses desperately need.” Headline rates of VAT, National Insurance and income tax were left unchanged.

That is the same squeeze the association set out yesterday, when it warned the Chancellor that customers had already hit an affordability ceiling. CGA by NIQ research put average spending on food and drink at £28.06 a head, up 34% from £20.95 in 2020, with growth between 2025 and 2026 down to 2.1% and London spending flat at £30.08. Kill said then that the consumer could not keep acting as the industry’s shock absorber.

He returned to that point after the statement. Years of rising costs, depleted reserves, higher employment liabilities and weaker consumer spending have changed the model, he said, and for many operators the priority is no longer growth but survival. Longer term ambitions were “encouraging”, but they need a jointly built short term plan so viable businesses are not lost while reforms bed in. “We must recognise progress where it has been made, but we cannot confuse limiting further damage with repairing the damage already done.”

The caution has a recent history. After the 2024 Autumn Budget, an NTIA member survey found 90% of venues were taking a severe financial hit, with 40% warning they could close within six months. Kill said the real test of today is whether it stops further losses and gives businesses the confidence, and the cash, to survive, invest and grow again. “This Budget may provide some breathing space,” he said, “but the real test will be whether it prevents further business losses and creates the conditions for recovery.”

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