Olivia Dean is William Hill’s 3/1 favourite to win the 2026 Mercury Prize when the ceremony returns to Newcastle on Thursday night (22 October). Her second album, The Art Of Loving, heads the outright market, narrowly ahead of Nia Archives’ Emotional Junglist at 4/1 and RAYE at 9/2.
The bookies are not calling it a procession. William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said that while Dean is favourite “to land the Mercury Prize on Thursday night, the rest of the market suggests it is far from a done deal.” He added that Nia Archives and RAYE “are firmly in the mix to win best album of 2026”, and that a late twist in Newcastle would not be a shock as they “continue to breathe down Dean’s neck.”
Dave is next at 7/1 for The Boy Who Played the Harp. Kojey Radical (Don’t Look Down) and Newcastle jazz band Knats (A Great Day In Newcastle) are both 9/1. The rest of the shortlist is grouped at 10/1. Prices were correct at the time of writing and can change. The full outright market is on William Hill.
William Hill Mercury Prize outright:
- Olivia Dean, 3/1
- Nia Archives, 4/1
- RAYE, 9/2
- Dave, 7/1
- Kojey Radical, 9/1
- Knats, 9/1
- BAR (the field), 10/1
The sold-out awards show is at Utilita Arena Newcastle, hosted by North East broadcaster Lauren Laverne. BBC Four carries the ceremony from 9.30pm, with BBC Radio 6 Music on air from Newcastle from 7pm. Live sets are due from Olivia Dean, Nia Archives, RAYE, Knats, Kojey Radical, JADE, Florence + The Machine, Dove Ellis and Suede, plus Pulp on behalf of the War Child compilation HELP(2). Dave and Paul McCartney will be marked with a short film rather than a performance.
Dean goes in on a heavy run of form. The Art Of Loving, the follow-up to her 2023 debut Messy, has already won Album of the Year at the BRITs and the MOBOs, and it is the biggest seller on this year’s list, with 699,113 units consumed. She was nominated before, for Messy. Festival crowds have already had a close look. She joined Sabrina Carpenter as a special guest at BST Hyde Park, and shared an all-female headliner day with Nia Archives at FORWARDS Festival in Bristol.
Nia Archives is chasing a first win after a previous shortlist appearance. Emotional Junglist is the only dance record in this year’s 12. RAYE is in with the No.1 album This Music May Contain Hope. Dave, who won the prize in 2019 with Psychodrama, is back for a second time. The £25,000 prize is decided on the night by an independent judging panel.
There is a strong North East thread beyond the betting. Knats are first-time nominees, and South Shields’ JADE is shortlisted for That’s Showbiz Baby! The rest of the 12 takes in Florence + The Machine, Suede, Galway newcomer Dove Ellis, Kojey Radical, Sir Paul McCartney’s first Mercury nomination (for The Boys of Dungeon Lane, at 84), and War Child’s HELP(2), only the second compilation ever shortlisted.bbc+1
Last year’s ceremony, the first held outside London, went to hometown hero Sam Fender for People Watching. He was not the market leader. CMAT had been the bookies’ favourite, which is the cautionary tale behind Phelps’ warning that Thursday is still open. Fender later gave his £25,000 prize to the Music Venue Trust.
Around the arena show, the Mercury Prize Fringe runs across Newcastle from 15 to 22 October, with more than 30 events programmed by Generator. That includes a homecoming listening party for Knats at the John Marley Centre on Tuesday 20 October. The fringe programme is at generator.org.uk.
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